Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Fixing Run Differential, Part 2

Updating my previous post, I have tweaked my formula to estimate wins from run differential on a game-by-game basis.  The table below shows the expected win totals for each team so far this season based on runs scored (wRS), runs allowed (wRA), and run differential (wRD).  The expected win percentage (w%) and record are based on the run differential method.  In most cases, the run differential win total is in between the offensive estimate (wRS) and the run prevention (wRA) estimate.  Originally, I was just going to use an average of these two, but I think the method I used with run differential more more accurately assesses the value of runs in certain situations.

Rank Team Division wRS wRA wRD w% Record
1 OAK AL West 43.3 45.0 46.2 0.600 46 - 31
2 WSN NL East 36.6 44.2 41.5 0.546 42 - 34
3 MIL NL Central 41.9 40.9 43.1 0.546 43 - 36
4 SEA AL West 38.1 44.6 42.6 0.546 43 - 35
5 SFG NL West 39.1 42.5 41.9 0.544 42 - 35
6 LAD NL West 40.6 43.7 42.9 0.543 43 - 36
7 LAA AL West 41.7 37.9 40.4 0.539 40 - 35
8 TOR AL East 43.6 39.0 42.4 0.537 42 - 37
9 STL NL Central 36.8 46.5 41.8 0.536 42 - 36
10 DET AL Central 38.9 35.5 38.5 0.527 38 - 35
11 KCR AL Central 37.0 41.0 40.1 0.521 40 - 37
12 BAL AL East 38.1 38.8 39.0 0.513 39 - 37
13 CIN NL Central 35.9 41.2 38.4 0.505 38 - 38
14 NYM NL East 36.8 41.4 38.8 0.504 39 - 38
15 MIA NL East 38.8 37.0 37.7 0.490 38 - 39
16 ATL NL East 32.8 42.0 37.2 0.489 37 - 39
17 PIT NL Central 37.2 37.5 37.4 0.486 37 - 40
18 CHC NL Central 34.0 38.2 36.2 0.483 36 - 39
19 COL NL West 42.5 32.5 37.0 0.481 37 - 40
20 NYY AL East 37.1 37.4 36.5 0.480 36 - 40
21 MIN AL Central 39.2 35.4 36.0 0.480 36 - 39
22 PHI NL East 35.5 38.1 36.2 0.476 36 - 40
23 BOS AL East 36.8 39.3 36.8 0.472 37 - 41
24 CLE AL Central 39.3 33.2 36.1 0.469 36 - 41
25 CHW AL Central 40.0 34.9 36.6 0.469 37 - 41
26 TEX AL West 36.2 34.9 34.4 0.453 34 - 42
27 HOU AL West 35.0 36.7 35.3 0.453 35 - 43
28 SDP NL West 29.3 42.6 34.5 0.442 34 - 44
29 TBR AL East 34.4 39.9 34.7 0.439 35 - 44
30 ARI NL West 38.4 33.0 34.7 0.434 35 - 45


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