Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Odubel Herrera's Sudden Plate Discipline

Yesterday on the Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast, Eric wondered whether any player has ever tripled his walk rate in consecutive (qualified) seasons.  This question was inspired by Odubel Herrera's astounding improvement in plate discipline this year.  He has increased his walk rate from 5.21% in 2015 to 14.55% in 2016 (a raw increase of 9.35%, or 2.79 times last year's rate).  I did some research using all qualified seasons since 1980 to find walk rate improvements.

In terms of raw increase in consecutive years, here are the leaders:

Rank Player Year 1 Year 2 Y1 BB% Y2 BB% Increase Multiplier
1 Barry Bonds 2003 2004 26.91% 37.60% 10.69% 1.40
2 Odubel Herrera 2015 2016 5.21% 14.55% 9.34% 2.79
3 Mark McGwire 1997 1998 15.37% 23.79% 8.42% 1.55
4 Paul O'Neill 1993 1994 8.04% 16.25% 8.21% 2.02
5 Danny Tartabull 1991 1992 11.67% 19.58% 7.91% 1.68
6 Brian Giles 2001 2002 13.35% 20.96% 7.61% 1.57
7 Barry Bonds 2000 2001 19.28% 26.66% 7.38% 1.38
8 Von Hayes 1986 1987 10.72% 17.77% 7.04% 1.66
9 Gary Matthews 1980 1981 6.79% 13.79% 7.00% 2.03
10 Eric Chavez 2003 2004 9.48% 16.46% 6.98% 1.74

In terms of percentage increase (multiplier from year 1 to year 2), here are the leaders:

Rank Player Year 1 Year 2 Y1 BB% Y2 BB% Increase Multiplier
1 Brian Hunter 1996 1997 3.07% 8.94% 5.87% 2.91
2 Alex Gonzalez 1999 2000 2.54% 7.28% 4.74% 2.87
3 Odubel Herrera 2015 2016 5.21% 14.55% 9.34% 2.79
4 Carlos Baerga 1994 1995 2.13% 5.83% 3.70% 2.74
5 Carlos Lee 1999 2000 2.51% 6.14% 3.63% 2.45
6 Ben Revere 2014 2015 2.08% 5.05% 2.97% 2.43
7 Adam Kennedy 2002 2003 3.73% 8.82% 5.09% 2.36
8 Ichiro Suzuki 2001 2002 4.07% 9.34% 5.28% 2.30
9 Alexei Ramirez 2008 2009 3.54% 8.09% 4.55% 2.29
10 Ozzie Guillen 1996 1997 1.89% 4.17% 2.28% 2.20
Hererra ranks 2nd in overall increase in walk rate (thanks to Barry Bonds, king of the intentional walk) and 3rd in percentage increase.  No player has tripled his walk rate in consecutive qualified seasons (since 1980), but the closest was Brian Hunter, who increased his rate from 3.07% in 1996 to 8.94% in 1997, a multiplier of 2.91.

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