Updating my previous post, I have tweaked my formula to estimate wins from run differential on a game-by-game basis. The table below shows the expected win totals for each team so far this season based on runs scored (wRS), runs allowed (wRA), and run differential (wRD). The expected win percentage (w%) and record are based on the run differential method. In most cases, the run differential win total is in between the offensive estimate (wRS) and the run prevention (wRA) estimate. Originally, I was just going to use an average of these two, but I think the method I used with run differential more more accurately assesses the value of runs in certain situations.
Rank | Team | Division | wRS | wRA | wRD | w% | Record |
1 | OAK | AL West | 43.3 | 45.0 | 46.2 | 0.600 | 46 - 31 |
2 | WSN | NL East | 36.6 | 44.2 | 41.5 | 0.546 | 42 - 34 |
3 | MIL | NL Central | 41.9 | 40.9 | 43.1 | 0.546 | 43 - 36 |
4 | SEA | AL West | 38.1 | 44.6 | 42.6 | 0.546 | 43 - 35 |
5 | SFG | NL West | 39.1 | 42.5 | 41.9 | 0.544 | 42 - 35 |
6 | LAD | NL West | 40.6 | 43.7 | 42.9 | 0.543 | 43 - 36 |
7 | LAA | AL West | 41.7 | 37.9 | 40.4 | 0.539 | 40 - 35 |
8 | TOR | AL East | 43.6 | 39.0 | 42.4 | 0.537 | 42 - 37 |
9 | STL | NL Central | 36.8 | 46.5 | 41.8 | 0.536 | 42 - 36 |
10 | DET | AL Central | 38.9 | 35.5 | 38.5 | 0.527 | 38 - 35 |
11 | KCR | AL Central | 37.0 | 41.0 | 40.1 | 0.521 | 40 - 37 |
12 | BAL | AL East | 38.1 | 38.8 | 39.0 | 0.513 | 39 - 37 |
13 | CIN | NL Central | 35.9 | 41.2 | 38.4 | 0.505 | 38 - 38 |
14 | NYM | NL East | 36.8 | 41.4 | 38.8 | 0.504 | 39 - 38 |
15 | MIA | NL East | 38.8 | 37.0 | 37.7 | 0.490 | 38 - 39 |
16 | ATL | NL East | 32.8 | 42.0 | 37.2 | 0.489 | 37 - 39 |
17 | PIT | NL Central | 37.2 | 37.5 | 37.4 | 0.486 | 37 - 40 |
18 | CHC | NL Central | 34.0 | 38.2 | 36.2 | 0.483 | 36 - 39 |
19 | COL | NL West | 42.5 | 32.5 | 37.0 | 0.481 | 37 - 40 |
20 | NYY | AL East | 37.1 | 37.4 | 36.5 | 0.480 | 36 - 40 |
21 | MIN | AL Central | 39.2 | 35.4 | 36.0 | 0.480 | 36 - 39 |
22 | PHI | NL East | 35.5 | 38.1 | 36.2 | 0.476 | 36 - 40 |
23 | BOS | AL East | 36.8 | 39.3 | 36.8 | 0.472 | 37 - 41 |
24 | CLE | AL Central | 39.3 | 33.2 | 36.1 | 0.469 | 36 - 41 |
25 | CHW | AL Central | 40.0 | 34.9 | 36.6 | 0.469 | 37 - 41 |
26 | TEX | AL West | 36.2 | 34.9 | 34.4 | 0.453 | 34 - 42 |
27 | HOU | AL West | 35.0 | 36.7 | 35.3 | 0.453 | 35 - 43 |
28 | SDP | NL West | 29.3 | 42.6 | 34.5 | 0.442 | 34 - 44 |
29 | TBR | AL East | 34.4 | 39.9 | 34.7 | 0.439 | 35 - 44 |
30 | ARI | NL West | 38.4 | 33.0 | 34.7 | 0.434 | 35 - 45 |
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